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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Allsvenskan · Matchweek 22

Västerås SK

VST

Malmö FF

MAL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Västerås SK32%
Draw27%
Malmö FF41%

Expected goals

1.26 – 1.46

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.3%
  • 0–110.0%
  • 1–28.8%
  • 1–08.5%
  • 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

48%Possession55%
41%Territory52%
38%From set plays28%
0.09Chance quality0.08
6.0%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Västerås SK, 3 for Malmö FF. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 168 matches, not the full season.