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Major League Soccer · Matchweek 32

Vancouver Whitecaps

VAN

San Diego FC

SAD

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Vancouver68%
Draw19%
San Diego FC13%

Expected goals

2.26 – 0.93

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 2010.6%
  • 109.9%
  • 219.8%
  • 118.6%
  • 307.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

52%Possession55%
43%Territory43%
24%From set plays19%
0.13Chance quality0.13
5.1%Directness4.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Vancouver, 3 for San Diego FC. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.