Major League Soccer · Matchweek 30
Austin FC
AUS
Vancouver Whitecaps
VAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Austin FC24%
Draw27%
Vancouver50%
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.56
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–112.3%
- 1–112.1%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.8%
- 0–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession52%
34%Territory43%
28%From set plays24%
0.14Chance quality0.13
5.0%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Austin FC, 3 for Vancouver. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.