Major League Soccer · Matchweek 29
St. Louis City
STL
Vancouver Whitecaps
VAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Louis City41%
Draw27%
Vancouver32%
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.34
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–27.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession52%
39%Territory43%
17%From set plays24%
0.19Chance quality0.13
5.3%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for St. Louis City, 3 for Vancouver. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.