Primera División · Clausura - Round 15
Vélez Sarsfield
VLE
San Lorenzo
SAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Vélez Sarsfield51%
Draw26%
San Lorenzo23%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.01
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.2%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
47%Possession44%
35%Territory36%
41%From set plays50%
0.12Chance quality0.07
6.0%Directness7.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Vélez Sarsfield, 3 for San Lorenzo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Vélez Sarsfield
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 36 of 390 matches, not the full season.