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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Primera División · Clausura - Round 12

Lanús

LAN

Vélez Sarsfield

VLE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Lanús45%
Draw25%
Vélez Sarsfield30%

Expected goals

1.77 – 1.43

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.6%
  • 2–19.1%
  • 1–07.7%
  • 1–27.2%
  • 2–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

56%Possession47%
40%Territory35%
43%From set plays41%
0.12Chance quality0.12
5.6%Directness6.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Lanús, 2 for Vélez Sarsfield. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 36 of 390 matches, not the full season.