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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Primera División · Clausura - Round 10

Vélez Sarsfield

VLE

Tigre

TIG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Vélez Sarsfield57%
Draw22%
Tigre21%

Expected goals

2.04 – 1.21

Over 2.5

62%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–19.8%
  • 1–19.7%
  • 1–08.5%
  • 2–08.1%
  • 3–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

47%Possession49%
35%Territory40%
41%From set plays41%
0.12Chance quality0.10
6.0%Directness7.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Vélez Sarsfield, 3 for Tigre. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 36 of 390 matches, not the full season.