Liga MX · Matchweek 17
Pachuca
PAC
Toluca
TOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Pachuca30%
Draw28%
Toluca42%
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.44
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.7%
- 0–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Toluca will have the ball; Pachuca will not mind.
45%Possession59%
37%Territory42%
28%From set plays19%
0.07Chance quality0.15
7.8%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Pachuca, 3 for Toluca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 70 matches, not the full season.