Liga MX · Matchweek 16
Atlas
ATL
Pachuca
PAC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atlas44%
Draw26%
Pachuca29%
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.28
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.4%
- 1–27.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession46%
39%Territory40%
24%From set plays16%
0.11Chance quality0.09
6.0%Directness8.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Atlas, 4 for Pachuca.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 28 of 134 matches, not the full season.