Liga MX · Matchweek 15
Pachuca
PAC
Tigres
TIG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Pachuca50%
Draw26%
Tigres24%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.06
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 1–011.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession46%
37%Territory36%
28%From set plays27%
0.07Chance quality0.07
7.8%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Pachuca, 3 for Tigres. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 70 matches, not the full season.