Conference League · League phase MD5
Mjällby
MJL
Pafos FC
PAF
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mjällby50%
Draw26%
Pafos FC25%
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.14
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.1%
- 0–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
50%Possession43%
44%Territory35%
33%From set plays9%
0.10Chance quality0.09
6.0%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Mjällby, 2 for Pafos FC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 36 matches, not the full season.