Conference League · League phase MD6
CSKA Sofia
CSK
Thun
THU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
CSKA Sofia47%
Draw26%
Thun27%
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.17
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.7%
- 0–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
48%Possession41%
33%Territory25%
30%From set plays23%
0.09Chance quality0.08
6.7%Directness8.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for CSKA Sofia, 2 for Thun. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
CSKA Sofia
Thun
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 36 matches, not the full season.