Conference League · League phase MD5
Thun
THU
Gent
GEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Thun39%
Draw28%
Gent33%
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.23
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–19.5%
- 0–08.8%
- 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
41%Possession50%
25%Territory40%
23%From set plays11%
0.08Chance quality0.07
8.4%Directness7.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Thun, 2 for Gent. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Thun
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 36 matches, not the full season.