Conference League · League phase MD4
Jablonec
JAB
Lugano
LUG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Jablonec38%
Draw26%
Lugano36%
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.49
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–07.9%
- 0–17.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
34%Possession41%
27%Territory27%
27%From set plays7%
0.12Chance quality0.17
8.8%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Jablonec, 2 for Lugano. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 36 matches, not the full season.