Conference League · League phase MD3
Riga FC
RIG
Jablonec
JAB
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Riga FC46%
Draw26%
Jablonec28%
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.21
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–17.5%
- 2–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
57%Possession34%
41%Territory27%
11%From set plays27%
0.13Chance quality0.12
3.7%Directness8.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Riga FC, 2 for Jablonec. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 36 matches, not the full season.