Conference League · League phase MD5
Riga FC
RIG
Atalanta
ATA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Riga FC44%
Draw26%
Atalanta30%
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.29
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.5%
- 1–27.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
57%Possession52%
41%Territory48%
11%From set plays24%
0.13Chance quality0.11
3.7%Directness3.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Riga FC, 2 for Atalanta. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 36 matches, not the full season.