Conference League · League phase MD4
Heart of Midlothian
HEA
Monaco
MON
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hearts38%
Draw28%
Monaco34%
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.30
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 1–09.8%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
41%Possession49%
34%Territory40%
72%From set plays6%
0.08Chance quality0.11
9.2%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Hearts, 2 for Monaco. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 36 matches, not the full season.