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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Conference League · League phase MD5

St.Truiden

STT

Ajax

AJA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

St.Truiden45%
Draw26%
Ajax29%

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.24

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.8%
  • 1–09.9%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 0–17.6%
  • 2–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

58%Possession59%
47%Territory47%
4%From set plays8%
0.11Chance quality0.10
5.8%Directness5.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for St.Truiden, 2 for Ajax. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 36 matches, not the full season.