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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Conference League · League phase MD3

FC Twente

FCT

Pafos FC

PAF

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

FC Twente58%
Draw23%
Pafos FC20%

Expected goals

1.99 – 1.11

Over 2.5

59%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.0%
  • 2–19.9%
  • 1–09.6%
  • 2–08.9%
  • 3–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

72%Possession43%
58%Territory35%
2%From set plays9%
0.15Chance quality0.09
3.6%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for FC Twente, 2 for Pafos FC. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 36 matches, not the full season.