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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Conference League · League phase MD5

KuPS

KUP

CSKA Sofia

CSK

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

KuPS39%
Draw28%
CSKA Sofia33%

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.26

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.5%
  • 1–010.2%
  • 0–19.2%
  • 2–18.5%
  • 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

53%Possession48%
37%Territory33%
22%From set plays30%
0.10Chance quality0.09
3.3%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for KuPS, 2 for CSKA Sofia. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 36 matches, not the full season.