Conference League · League phase MD6
Lugano
LUG
St.Truiden
STT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lugano44%
Draw25%
St.Truiden31%
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.40
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.2%
- 1–27.4%
- 0–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
41%Possession58%
27%Territory47%
7%From set plays4%
0.17Chance quality0.11
3.9%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Lugano, 2 for St.Truiden. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 36 matches, not the full season.