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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Conference League · League phase MD3

Lugano

LUG

FK Kauno Žalgiris

FKK

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Lugano58%
Draw22%
FK Kauno Žalgiris21%

Expected goals

2.10 – 1.23

Over 2.5

63%

Both to score

63%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–19.8%
  • 1–19.4%
  • 1–08.2%
  • 2–08.0%
  • 3–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

41%Possession28%
27%Territory21%
7%From set plays52%
0.17Chance quality0.07
3.9%Directness7.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Lugano, 2 for FK Kauno Žalgiris. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

FK Kauno Žalgiris

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 36 matches, not the full season.