Conference League · League phase MD5
Brighton & Hove Albion
BHA
Monaco
MON
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Brighton47%
Draw26%
Monaco27%
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.19
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.6%
- 0–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
75%Possession49%
71%Territory40%
18%From set plays6%
0.09Chance quality0.11
3.2%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Brighton, 2 for Monaco. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 36 matches, not the full season.