Conference League · League phase MD3
FC Midtjylland
FCM
Ajax
AJA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
FC Midtjylland42%
Draw27%
Ajax31%
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.30
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–27.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
45%Possession59%
41%Territory47%
19%From set plays8%
0.14Chance quality0.10
8.1%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for FC Midtjylland, 2 for Ajax. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 36 matches, not the full season.