Conference League · League phase MD5
FC København
FCK
Lugano
LUG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
FC København42%
Draw26%
Lugano32%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.39
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–27.6%
- 0–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
39%Possession41%
33%Territory27%
23%From set plays7%
0.12Chance quality0.17
5.6%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for FC København, 2 for Lugano. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 36 matches, not the full season.