Conference League · League phase MD4
Ajax
AJA
Thun
THU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Ajax47%
Draw27%
Thun27%
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.14
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.8%
- 0–17.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
59%Possession41%
47%Territory25%
8%From set plays23%
0.10Chance quality0.08
5.3%Directness8.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Ajax, 2 for Thun. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Thun
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 36 matches, not the full season.