Conference League · League phase MD3
Atalanta
ATA
Kairat Almaty
KAI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atalanta50%
Draw25%
Kairat Almaty26%
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.22
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–26.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
52%Possession39%
48%Territory32%
24%From set plays23%
0.11Chance quality0.08
3.3%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Atalanta, 2 for Kairat Almaty. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Atalanta
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 36 matches, not the full season.