Europa League · League phase MD6
Ararat Armenia
ARA
NEC Nijmegen
NEC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Ararat Armenia47%
Draw25%
NEC Nijmegen28%
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.36
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.2%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–06.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
41%Possession52%
23%Territory40%
55%From set plays—
0.15Chance quality0.07
4.8%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Ararat Armenia, 1 for NEC Nijmegen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Ararat Armenia
NEC Nijmegen
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.