Europa League · League phase MD3
Ararat Armenia
ARA
AZ Alkmaar
AZA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Ararat Armenia42%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar32%
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.40
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.4%
- 1–27.5%
- 0–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
41%Possession55%
23%Territory42%
55%From set plays8%
0.15Chance quality0.12
4.8%Directness1.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Ararat Armenia, 1 for AZ Alkmaar. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Ararat Armenia
AZ Alkmaar
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.