Europa League · League phase MD7
NEC Nijmegen
NEC
Benfica
BEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
NEC Nijmegen32%
Draw25%
Benfica43%
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.71
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–17.6%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
47%Possession59%
46%Territory53%
1%From set plays15%
0.10Chance quality0.13
6.4%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for NEC Nijmegen, 2 for Benfica. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.