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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Europa League · League phase MD4

Hapoel Beer Sheva

HAP

OFI Crete

OFI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Hapoel Beer Sheva43%
Draw28%
OFI Crete29%

Expected goals

1.44 – 1.17

Over 2.5

48%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.5%
  • 1–011.0%
  • 2–18.9%
  • 0–18.7%
  • 0–08.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

45%Possession35%
32%Territory23%
2%From set plays10%
0.14Chance quality0.04
3.1%Directness5.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Hapoel Beer Sheva, 2 for OFI Crete. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.