Europa League · League phase MD4
Torreense
TOR
Ararat Armenia
ARA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Torreense47%
Draw25%
Ararat Armenia28%
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.35
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.4%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
33%Possession41%
32%Territory23%
4%From set plays55%
0.13Chance quality0.15
9.2%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Torreense, 1 for Ararat Armenia. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Ararat Armenia
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.