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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Europa League · League phase MD5

Beşiktaş

BEI

Hapoel Beer Sheva

HAP

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Beşiktaş56%
Draw24%
Hapoel Beer Sheva20%

Expected goals

1.87 – 1.08

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.6%
  • 1–010.3%
  • 2–19.9%
  • 2–09.0%
  • 3–16.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

53%Possession45%
39%Territory32%
29%From set plays2%
0.16Chance quality0.14
5.8%Directness3.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Beşiktaş, 2 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.