Europa League · League phase MD5
Hoffenheim
HOF
Sturm Graz
STU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hoffenheim49%
Draw28%
Sturm Graz23%
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.93
Over 2.5
42%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.8%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–010.4%
- 2–09.2%
- 2–19.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
49%Possession33%
31%Territory34%
46%From set plays17%
0.09Chance quality0.10
5.1%Directness6.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Hoffenheim, 2 for Sturm Graz. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sturm Graz
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.