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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Europa League · League phase MD8

Celta Vigo

CEL

Lillestrøm

LIL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Celta Vigo58%
Draw23%
Lillestrøm19%

Expected goals

1.92 – 1.05

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–010.5%
  • 1–110.4%
  • 2–110.0%
  • 2–09.4%
  • 3–16.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

52%Possession46%
44%Territory36%
11%From set plays0%
0.09Chance quality0.14
3.2%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Celta Vigo, 2 for Lillestrøm. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.