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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Europa League · League phase MD5

Celta Vigo

CEL

AFC Bournemouth

AFC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Celta Vigo42%
Draw27%
Bournemouth31%

Expected goals

1.52 – 1.28

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.0%
  • 1–09.7%
  • 2–18.9%
  • 0–18.0%
  • 1–27.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

52%Possession63%
44%Territory52%
11%From set plays44%
0.09Chance quality0.14
3.2%Directness6.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Celta Vigo, 2 for Bournemouth. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.