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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Europa League · League phase MD2

Jagiellonia Białystok

JAG

Ararat Armenia

ARA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Jagiellonia Białystok43%
Draw26%
Ararat Armenia31%

Expected goals

1.64 – 1.38

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.3%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 1–08.5%
  • 1–27.4%
  • 0–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

42%Possession41%
15%Territory23%
10%From set plays55%
0.12Chance quality0.15
6.1%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Jagiellonia Białystok, 1 for Ararat Armenia. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.