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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Europa League · League phase MD6

Jagiellonia Białystok

JAG

Crystal Palace

CRY

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Jagiellonia Białystok37%
Draw26%
Crystal Palace37%

Expected goals

1.47 – 1.48

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.6%
  • 1–28.3%
  • 2–18.2%
  • 0–18.1%
  • 1–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

42%Possession53%
15%Territory47%
10%From set plays7%
0.12Chance quality0.14
6.1%Directness2.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Jagiellonia Białystok, 1 for Crystal Palace. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.