Skip to content
Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Europa League · League phase MD7

Jagiellonia Białystok

JAG

Lyon

OL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Jagiellonia Białystok12%
Draw19%
Lyon70%

Expected goals

0.86 – 2.25

Over 2.5

59%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–211.4%
  • 0–110.6%
  • 1–29.7%
  • 1–18.5%
  • 0–38.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

42%Possession42%
15%Territory23%
10%From set plays31%
0.12Chance quality0.09
6.1%Directness5.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Jagiellonia Białystok, 1 for Lyon. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.