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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Europa League · League phase MD5

Sunderland

SUN

Jagiellonia Białystok

JAG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sunderland49%
Draw25%
Jagiellonia Białystok26%

Expected goals

1.71 – 1.22

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.3%
  • 1–09.6%
  • 2–19.5%
  • 2–07.5%
  • 0–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

45%Possession42%
25%Territory15%
39%From set plays10%
0.15Chance quality0.12
6.0%Directness6.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Sunderland, 1 for Jagiellonia Białystok. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.