Europa League · League phase MD2
AFC Bournemouth
AFC
Sturm Graz
STU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bournemouth50%
Draw28%
Sturm Graz22%
Expected goals
1.47 – 0.90
Over 2.5
42%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.2%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–010.4%
- 2–09.6%
- 2–19.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
38%Possession38%
34%Territory26%
22%From set plays37%
0.07Chance quality0.07
7.3%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Bournemouth, 1 for Sturm Graz. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sturm Graz
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.