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Europa League · League phase MD2

AFC Bournemouth

AFC

Sturm Graz

STU

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Bournemouth50%
Draw28%
Sturm Graz22%

Expected goals

1.47 – 0.90

Over 2.5

42%

Both to score

47%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1014.2%
  • 1112.4%
  • 0010.4%
  • 209.6%
  • 219.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

38%Possession38%
34%Territory26%
22%From set plays37%
0.07Chance quality0.07
7.3%Directness6.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Bournemouth, 1 for Sturm Graz. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Sturm Graz

No regular with a goal involvement yet.

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.