Europa League · League phase MD3
AFC Bournemouth
AFC
Milan
MIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bournemouth44%
Draw27%
Milan29%
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.23
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.8%
- 0–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
38%Possession60%
34%Territory54%
22%From set plays38%
0.07Chance quality0.06
7.3%Directness2.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Bournemouth, 1 for Milan. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Milan
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.