Europa League · League phase MD4
Sturm Graz
STU
NK Celje
NKC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sturm Graz35%
Draw31%
NK Celje34%
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.11
Over 2.5
38%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.3%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–112.0%
- 2–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
33%Possession56%
34%Territory38%
17%From set plays23%
0.10Chance quality0.12
6.9%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Sturm Graz, 2 for NK Celje. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sturm Graz
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.