Europa League · League phase MD3
Sturm Graz
STU
Marseille
OM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sturm Graz33%
Draw30%
Marseille37%
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.21
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–010.9%
- 1–27.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
38%Possession46%
26%Territory30%
37%From set plays12%
0.07Chance quality0.07
6.3%Directness3.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Sturm Graz, 1 for Marseille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sturm Graz
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.