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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Europa League · League phase MD4

Anderlecht

AND

Salzburg

SAL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Anderlecht47%
Draw25%
Salzburg28%

Expected goals

1.77 – 1.36

Over 2.5

59%

Both to score

63%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.7%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 1–08.2%
  • 1–26.9%
  • 2–06.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

57%Possession51%
48%Territory38%
8%From set plays11%
0.09Chance quality0.08
4.2%Directness4.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Anderlecht, 2 for Salzburg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.