Europa League · League phase MD4
Sparta Prague
SPA
AFC Bournemouth
AFC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sparta Prague48%
Draw25%
Bournemouth28%
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.31
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–07.0%
- 1–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
59%Possession38%
41%Territory34%
42%From set plays22%
0.11Chance quality0.07
4.6%Directness7.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Sparta Prague, 1 for Bournemouth. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.