Europa League · League phase MD4
Sparta Prague
SPA
AFC Bournemouth
AFC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sparta Prague31%
Draw27%
Bournemouth41%
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.46
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.5%
- 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
46%Possession63%
39%Territory52%
32%From set plays44%
0.06Chance quality0.14
4.8%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Sparta Prague, 2 for Bournemouth. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.