Europa League · League phase MD5
Sparta Prague
SPA
AZ Alkmaar
AZA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sparta Prague50%
Draw24%
AZ Alkmaar26%
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.28
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–07.3%
- 1–26.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
59%Possession55%
41%Territory42%
42%From set plays8%
0.11Chance quality0.12
4.6%Directness1.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Sparta Prague, 1 for AZ Alkmaar. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
AZ Alkmaar
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.