Europa League · League phase MD5
Sparta Prague
SPA
AZ Alkmaar
AZA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sparta Prague35%
Draw28%
AZ Alkmaar37%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.37
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
46%Possession60%
39%Territory43%
32%From set plays21%
0.06Chance quality0.14
4.8%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Sparta Prague, 2 for AZ Alkmaar. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.