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Europa League · League phase MD5

Salzburg

SAL

Ararat Armenia

ARA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Salzburg52%
Draw23%
Ararat Armenia26%

Expected goals

2.03 – 1.43

Over 2.5

66%

Both to score

67%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 119.3%
  • 219.3%
  • 106.9%
  • 226.7%
  • 206.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

50%Possession41%
31%Territory23%
6%From set plays55%
0.12Chance quality0.15
4.0%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Salzburg, 1 for Ararat Armenia. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.