Europa League · League phase MD5
Union St.Gilloise
UNI
Lech Poznań
LEC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Union St.Gilloise53%
Draw24%
Lech Poznań23%
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.21
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–07.9%
- 3–16.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
51%Possession47%
39%Territory44%
26%From set plays9%
0.15Chance quality0.07
4.2%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Union St.Gilloise, 1 for Lech Poznań. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Union St.Gilloise
Lech Poznań
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.