Europa League · League phase MD5
Union St.Gilloise
UNI
Lech Poznań
LEC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Union St.Gilloise63%
Draw21%
Lech Poznań17%
Expected goals
2.16 – 1.07
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.3%
- 1–19.2%
- 1–09.1%
- 3–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
48%Possession41%
49%Territory21%
34%From set plays9%
0.10Chance quality0.11
5.4%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Union St.Gilloise, 2 for Lech Poznań. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Union St.Gilloise
Lech Poznań
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.