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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Europa League · League phase MD2

Union St.Gilloise

UNI

Real Sociedad

RSO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Union St.Gilloise50%
Draw25%
Real Sociedad26%

Expected goals

1.77 – 1.25

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.9%
  • 2–19.6%
  • 1–09.2%
  • 2–07.4%
  • 1–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

51%Possession62%
39%Territory38%
26%From set plays57%
0.15Chance quality0.09
4.2%Directness3.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Union St.Gilloise, 1 for Real Sociedad. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.